Are airline tickets too expensive?

If you haven’t checked airfares lately, you might want to sit down before you read this. The numbers on the screen aren’t a glitch, but a shocking new reality of a Middle East conflict. 

Just as we were getting used to traveling again, a new war has sent jet fuel prices into the stratosphere.

And this time, the fares are sky-high.

How bad is it?

Almost two weeks after the conflict with Iran started, U.S. jet fuel prices have jumped by an average of 48 percent. That’s about an extra $1.15 per gallon. For an industry where fuel is often the biggest expense, it’s a disaster.

That, in turn, has caused airfares to spike. 

Airfares were already up 7.1 percent in February compared to last year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. But that was before the shooting started. Now, experts warn we could see prices rise by an additional 30 percent. 

If that happens, fares will peak at $365, eclipsing the pandemic high.

Here’s how it’s hitting specific routes

Asia to Europe. Prices are soaring because airlines have to fly longer routes to avoid closed airspace. Qantas reports that seats on its Perth-to-London and Perth-to-Paris routes are over 90 percent full as passengers scramble to avoid the Middle East. One business-class round-trip ticket from Sydney to London on Cathay Pacific recently hit a staggering $25,600.

North America to India. Air India just announced that it’s hiking fuel surcharges by $50 per ticket for flights to the U.S. starting March 18. That brings the total surcharge to $200 per ticket.

Transatlantic and regional. Carriers like United and American are staring down an estimated $11 billion in extra fuel costs this year. United CEO Scott Kirby recently told reporters that fare hikes would likely start “quick” to keep up with oil volatility.

Is air travel too expensive now?

That raises the question: Is air travel about to get too pricey for the average person? Or are we just looking at a bunch of hyperventilating travel reporters who are focusing on long-haul routes and ignoring the fact that, factoring inflation, airfares are still more affordable than ever? (Oh, I know, journalists.)

And a few follow-up questions:

• If you said yes, will these hikes change your plans for spring break or summer vacation? Do you think airlines are using the war as an excuse to pad their profits?

• If you said no, is there a price point that will make you stay home? 

My take: The airline industry is nothing if not opportunistic. While the spike in fuel is real, many major U.S. carriers stopped hedging their fuel costs years ago, leaving them—and you—completely exposed to these price shocks. It’s a “heads they win, tails you lose” situation. They’ll hike prices within hours when oil prices go up, but they’re notoriously slow to drop them when things settle down again. I think we’re looking at a summer of record-high prices that could price many families out of the sky. Staycation, anyone?

Your turn

What do you think? Are you hitting “delete” on those flight alerts, or are you biting the bullet and paying up for your summer flight? The comments are open.