Editorial illustration of a couple standing on a dark airport tarmac with two orange roller suitcases, watching from a distance as a fiery orange and yellow explosion cloud rises into the blue sky beyond, with a small white airplane visible on the horizon, illustrating the uncertainty of booking summer vacation travel during an active geopolitical conflict in the Middle East

Is it safe to book a summer vacation yet?

A possible Iran deal is in sight. Here's what you need to know.

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By Christopher Elliott

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The U.S. and Iran are reportedly close to a deal that would end the war, lift sanctions, release billions in frozen Iranian funds, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. 

Is that your cue to book your summer vacation?

It might be. But as always, the truth is complicated.

The travel industry is already damaged. Airbnb said this week that cancellations across Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific are running higher than usual, and it expects second-quarter bookings to drop by about a full percentage point. Booking Holdings, which owns Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, and Kayak, cut its full-year revenue forecast and now expects soft demand to drag on through June. Hilton has flagged occupancy pressure in the Middle East, too.

The diplomats may be circling a deal, but nothing is signed. Iranian lawmakers have called the U.S. proposal a “wish list.” The White House itself isn’t sure Tehran’s leadership can agree internally. 

Meanwhile, the companies selling you a summer trip insist the worst is already priced in. It’s a familiar pitch, but it also assumes nothing else goes wrong. And during crazy times like this, that’s a big assumption to make.

Here’s your pre-booking checklist for summer

Before you put down a deposit, here’s a list to consider:

  1. Check the State Department advisory for your destination. Level 3 (“reconsider travel”) and Level 4 (“do not travel”) are red flags. They affect your insurance coverage, too.
  2. Look at your route, not just your destination. Any flight that overflies the eastern Mediterranean could be affected. Airspace closures change weekly.
  3. Watch fuel prices over the last 30 days. Jet fuel tracks crude, and crude tracks the Strait of Hormuz. If oil is climbing, expect more fare hikes, fuel surcharges, and capacity cuts.
  4. Read the cancellation policy out loud. “Free cancellation” usually means up to a date, after which you owe everything. Note the date.
  5. Consider travel insurance with a “cancel for any reason” upgrade. Standard policies don’t cover a change of heart when the news gets scary. CFAR does, at about 50 to 75 reimbursement of your prepaid, nonrefundable expenses.
  6. Pay with a credit card. Debit cards and bank transfers are off the table. Yes, even if they offer you a discount. It’s just not worth it. If the airline collapses or the tour operator vanishes, the card’s chargeback protection is the only thing standing between you and a total loss.
  7. Have a Plan B and a Plan C. Be sure to have a refundable backup destination, a date you’ll pull the trigger on canceling, and the phone number of a human travel agent who can rebook you in an hour.

If you can’t check off all seven, you’re not ready to book. 

Which brings us to today’s question.

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Would you book a summer trip now?

And a few follow-up questions:

If you voted yes:

  • What’s giving you confidence: the peace talks, your insurance, or the price?
  • Did you purchase insurance? Was it “cancel for any reason” coverage, or are you trusting the standard policy?
  • What would change your mind between now and departure?

If you said no:

  • Is it safety, money, or something else?
  • What would have to happen — a signed deal, lower fuel, a specific advisory lifted — before you’d reconsider?
  • Are you booking domestic instead, or skipping a trip altogether?

My take: “The worst is priced in” is something an airline says right before the price goes up.

The deal isn’t done. The Strait of Hormuz is partially open one day and contested the next. Booking.com, the biggest online travel agency on the planet, just told Wall Street it expects this to drag on through June at minimum. That isn’t a green light.

It also isn’t a stop sign. It means you have to travel like an adult. Read the cancellation policy. Buy the “cancel for any reason” rider. Pay with a credit card. Pick a destination where the worst case is a delayed flight, not an evacuation.

And ignore anyone, especially a chief executive on an earnings call, who tells you the damage is done. The damage is done when the war ends, the sanctions are lifted, the ships sail, and the fuel surcharges come off. And we’re not there—yet. 

Your turn

Are you booking, holding off, or canceling a trip you already paid for? Tell me in the comments.

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Christopher Elliott

Christopher Elliott is the founder of Elliott Advocacy, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization that empowers consumers to solve their problems and helps those who can't. He's the author of numerous books on consumer advocacy and writes three nationally syndicated columns. He also publishes the Elliott Report, a news site for consumers, and Elliott Confidential, a critically acclaimed newsletter about customer service. If you have a consumer problem you can't solve, contact him directly through his advocacy website. You can also follow him on X, Facebook, and LinkedIn, or sign up for his daily newsletter.

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