Don’t look now, but summer travel intent has hit its lowest point since the pandemic because of rising travel costs. It’s affecting some travelers more than others, and that’s a story you won’t hear anywhere else.
Deloitte’s latest summer travel survey has the numbers: Only 45 percent of travelers surveyed are planning a summer vacation with paid lodging this year, the lowest number in six years.
Travel is down across every income bracket, but the drop among households earning under $100,000 is twice as steep as the decline among middle and high-income earners, an 8-point drop versus 4 points each.
But the travelers who are still going plan to spend $4,069 on their summer vacations, up 17 percent from last year.
In other words, the rich are going on vacation and spending more; the not-so-rich, well, not so much.
Is this the beginning of the end of the American summer vacation?
When it comes to vacations, there’s always been a class divide. One half takes a road trip, the other a luxury cruise. One goes camping, the other glamping. Nothing wrong with that.
But when one half stops traveling entirely, that’s a problem. And not just for the travel industry, which is watching one of its most important markets ground itself. This also affects travelers themselves, who miss out on an essential summer ritual that lets them recharge their batteries and spend time with friends and family.
If this trend continues, with the “haves” taking ever-pricier summer vacations and the “have-nots” staying home, it would be bad for everyone. Affordable travel is one of the backbones of the American travel experience.
What’s happening is obvious. Yes, economic worries are keeping people from taking a trip, but the biggest economic deterrent is the price of a vacation. Higher energy costs and a relentless need to increase shareholder value have pushed rates and fares higher, beyond the reach of the average traveler.
What the travel industry says about rising vacation costs
Hotels and airlines argue that high-net-worth travelers want longer stays, full-service properties, and elevated amenities, and that catering to those customers funds investment in service standards and infrastructure.
Deloitte’s broader 2026 outlook calls it a “bifurcation” of standard and luxury and frames competition for the high-spending traveler as one of the year’s defining trends. The official line is that this is modernization, not abandonment.
But the travel industry may regret this restructuring. The value travel segment is a vital part of the travel ecosystem, and turning your back on it could be disastrous.
How to find affordable summer travel deals
The good news is that the same forces hollowing out the market are creating cracks you can travel through.
Travelers earning between $100,000 and $199,000 are showing the biggest booking gap, with 37 percent fully booked versus 45 percent last year. That’s a lot of empty inventory in late May, and revenue managers know it.
But you won’t see those cuts on Expedia. The big booking sites are designed to protect rate parity for their hotel partners, and the airlines have learned to hide their distressed inventory. The deals are out there, they’re just moving through different doors this year.
Four things can land you a deal that’s more than affordable this summer:
Call the hotel directly. Skip the 800 number. Ask the manager on duty what they can do that the website can’t—maybe a 15 to 25 percent midweek discount with parking included.
Wait longer than feels comfortable. Since the squeeze on suppliers gets worse as the season drags on, good things come to those who wait.
Find the small operator. Family-run inns, independent guides, owner-operated charters. Most will negotiate by email.
Also, consider a road trip. Driving vacations are off to a strong start this weekend, but research suggests they’ll taper off as the summer gets underway. Planned road trips are down to 66 percent of travelers, from 71 percent last year, which means a lot of Americans have written off driving. That’s an opportunity for a more affordable summer vacation.
That depends on how you roll. Do you use a travel agent, book packages, fine dining every night? Last summer my 15-day trip through Italy, Croatia, Slovenia, Hungary and Austria cost me about $2,700, including lodging, rental car, fuel, food, and minimal souvenirs. I used an AA mileage redemption from PHL to VCE for 54,000 miles plus $59 for the round trip, non-stop flights.
Not sure where I’m going yet this year. Probably back to Japan because the USD is super strong against the Yen. Plus gasoline is super expensive in Europe right now, and I rely on trains in Japan instead of a rental car.
Read more insightful reader feedback. See all comments.
And now, the poll
That brings us to this week’s question.
And a few follow-up questions:
If you said yes:
- Did you book through a major site, or did you go direct to the property?
- Are you spending more, less, or about the same as last summer?
If you said no:
- Was it the airfare, the lodging, or the total trip cost that pushed you out?
- Would a 20 percent discount on lodging change your mind, or are you done with the math entirely?
My take: The industry has picked its customer, and it isn’t the family in the minivan. I’m not bothered by the luxury part. It’s the abandonment of the middle class, and the way the industry has stopped pretending to care.
Your turn
Is the middle-class family vacation finished, or have you found a way around the pricing wall this summer? Tell me in the comments.
