Taking a swat at the millennium bug

Is all the hype about the Year 2000 making us overlook a serious threat to interactive travel? Maybe.

John F. Davis III, Pegasus Systems’ chief executive, pinpointed a problem several weeks ago when he announced a program to help his properties exterminate the millennium bug.

While big businesses renovate their computer systems in the glare of the media spotlight, rewriting their software so it can correctly interpret the “00″ in 2000, the rest are doing comparatively little in the way of compliance, he argued. In a symbiotic industry like interactive travel, that kind of oversight could shut us down on Jan. 1, 2000.

But don’t take my word for it.

“We live in a networked world,” says Kenneth Buys, a Year 2000 expert at the Philadelphia law firm Blank Rome Comisky & McCauley. “If your customers go out of business because of a Year 2000 problem, you could, too. You can’t assume that because you’re compliant, your customers or suppliers are as well.”

This is true across the board, of course. But it’s especially true in our business, according to Seema Williams, the Forrester Research analyst. She points out that there are a disproportionate number of ventures that aggregate third-party services into one site. These businesses could feel the millennium bug’s sting worse than everyone else.

“Overall, I get the feeling that the Year 2000 problem [is] focused entirely on the biggie providers, like GDSs, airlines, bigger hotels, and so forth,” she observes. “Everyone else, it’s just noise.”

Davis wants to change that, but with only months left in this century, it’s a race against time. And it’s a big job. Pegasus has 28,000 hotel systems on its network. If he could fix one hotel’s Y2K troubles every day, it would take Davis more than 76 years to finish the task.

“The potential for disaster is real. Very real,” he says.

Fortunately, a lot of hotels already see things his way. The ones with a serious Y2K problem can’t make reservations past December 31, 1999. Properties catering to conventions have had to address this issue already, because bookings often are made many years in advance. The rest of the inns and hotels are only now coming to grips with their millennium troubles.

“The key,” says Davis, “is high visibility and talking about the problem.”

Davis begins the process with a polite letter that asks if the hotel is aware of the Year 2000 problem. “We start in a positive way, asking if we can be of any assistance. We don’t have to begin by saying, ‘Are you awake, stupid?’,” he says.

What happens to a supplier that resists Davis’ efforts? Such inaction would affect not only the property but Pegasus as well. Davis hesitates to say how he’d deal with a renegade hotel, clearly hoping that it won’t come to that. But he acknowledges that if action isn’t taken by the third quarter of this year, the consequences could be grave.

Buys knows what needs to happen next. If a business like Pegasus is being stonewalled, “it may have a [legal] claim,” he says. On the other hand, the chances of the supplier going out of business are much higher if the supplier has not resolved Y2K problems, and then there’d be no one to sue.

A contingency plan is needed.

“Try to look for alternate suppliers,” Buys suggests. “Spread your risk a little bit. If one hotel in ten ends up crashing on January 1, 2000, you’ve only lost one-tenth of your revenues, which isn’t as bad as if you were doing business with only one hotel.”

Only time will tell if the Pegasus program is successful. However, the fringe benefits to the entire industry-not just the lodging sector-are difficult to underestimate today. The program has raised Y2K supplier-compliance to a new, and much-needed, level of urgency.

Far from the hype that’s swirled around the millennium bug, Davis’ consciousness-raising efforts strike an appropriate balance between anxiety and action.

Christopher Elliott is the author of Scammed: How to Save Your Money and Find Better Service in a World of Schemes, Swindles, and Shady Deals. Critics have called it “eye-opening” and “inspiring” — it’ll “grab your attention and won’t let go.” Order your copy now on Amazon, Barnes & Noble or iTunes.

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