The only thing that can be said about online travel with any certainty is that nothing is certain.
Believe me. I’ve been writing about this business since the very beginning, and just when I think I’ve got it all figured out, fate makes a fool of me. So as this year winds to a close, rather than gazing into my crystal ball, I’m taking a look back at some of the boneheaded things I’ve recently predicted.
Read on and laugh with me. You may learn something from my mistakes.
Stupid Prediction #1: BuyTravel.com will be the story of the year.
Yeah, right. Last October I confidently said that when we review the year in interactive travel, the big story probably won’t be the Travelocity.com/Preview merger, the Getthere.com and Expedia.com IPOs, or even Amazon.com’s foray into the travel business. It will, instead, be the launch of BuyTravel.com, the joint venture of United Airlines and Buy.com.
Why was it stupid? Buytravel.com quietly folded almost a year after the column appeared. Seems that United and Buy.com lost interest in running an online agency. Neither gave particularly compelling reasons for bailing out of the joint venture. Then again, neither of them had given particularly good reasons for getting into it in the first place. Makes you wonder how serious United is about its Orbitz stake, doesn’t it?
Stupid Prediction #2: WalMart will use Feng Shui to attract travelers.
I can’t believe I wrote that one. But I did. This January I asked, “When you’re the mastermind behind one of the year’s biggest travel site launches, what do spend your time thinking about?” Answer: “In Wal-Mart’s case, consultant Richard Giuliani didn’t just concern himself with issues like vendor relationships, software compatibilities and corporate politics – although there was enough of that to stay busy, to hear him talk about it. He also had concepts like Feng Shui on his mind.”
Why was it stupid? Maybe Wal-Mart should have spent more time thinking about how to make money and less time pondering ancient Chinese principles of harmony and balance. It sent its travel section to the next world in September, citing similarly unintelligible reasons. I don’t blame Wal-Mart for trying to set itself apart from its online competitors by being different; I blame myself for ignoring the obvious question: does this project have enough chi to cut it?
Stupid Prediction #3: Orbitz may be dead on arrival.
Not exactly an original prediction, since just about every other pundit said pretty much the same thing this summer. In a lightly sourced column, I wondered rhetorically why “some industry observers are referring to Orbitz as ‘Obits’ – as in, obituaries? The site once known as T2, I continued, promises an unbiased display of travel information and the latest technology of any travel service on the Web. “But so far it’s delivered nothing but controversy,” I added.
Why was it stupid? Because Orbitz hasn’t arrived – yet. It’s still delayed. Was I wrong in suggesting it might be DOA? We may never know, because it may never arrive. Sure, the site is still being tested, but some observers – me included – have also pointed out that other projects have either done exactly what Orbitz has promised to do, or have even done it better. Like many of my colleagues in the virtual peanut gallery, I’ve had a hard time handling the prickly personalities involved in this company, but even if you overlook their at times counterproductive arrogance, you still can’t help but arriving at a bleak conclusion: Orbitz is a site whose time may have come – and gone.
Stupid Prediction #4: The travel industry needs its own top-level domain.
Sure. Commenting on the International Air Transport Association’s recent tiff with the American Society of Travel Agents over who controls a proposed “dot travel” name, I smugly noted, “When I first suggested a top-level domain for the travel industry in mid-1997, the idea was roundly dismissed. “When I observed that ‘travel in general, and interactive travel specifically, got the worst domain names,’ my comments were greeted with a collective yawn. No one cared. It’s nice to know my ideas have some merit, even if I’ve had to wait a while for them to be validated.”
Why was it stupid? Because the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers – the people who control Internet names – rejected the proposal, that’s why. Seems a “dot travel” domain isn’t necessary after all. Don’t these people read my column?
If you’re not laughing at me by now, thanks for being polite. Go ahead – no need to wipe that smirk off your face. You don’t have to be a publicist for one of the companies I wrote about last year to have a chuckle at my expense. Go on, I deserve it.
Know what? I’m glad I got it wrong a few times. It just goes to show how wonderfully unpredictable this industry is. And how anyone who says he knows what will happen next year is full of hot air.
Remember that the next time you’re at one of those travel conferences and someone makes a prediction.
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