The year ahead in technology

Assuming that every computer on the planet didn’t short-circuit at the stroke of midnight on Dec. 31, that the doom-and-gloom predictions of power outages and indiscriminate looting proved by and large untrue, and that yes, civilization is safe once more, this column will be posted in the early days of 2000.

The year 2000. Wow.

When I was a kid, the year 2000 seemed so distant. And when I thought about it, I pictured flying cars, wristwatch computers, intergalactic travel and teleportation as realities of everyday life – futuristic images inspired by the writings of sci-fi authors like Arthur C. Clarke and Isaac Asimov.

We’ll probably have to do without the flying cars, except maybe in movies like the Back to the Future trilogy. The wristwatch computers on the market today would disappoint Dick Tracy. Forget about intergalactic travel, too. The only good news is: If you’re light, you can be teleported.

Since we’re still another millennium at best away from morphing into pure energy as a human race, let’s also consider the teleportation thing a lost cause and focus on the here and now. Which is to say, let’s talk about what the next year might hold in store for us.

Here’s what I’m looking forward to during 2000, and what it will mean to us:

1. A Microsoft settlement. Oh, call me idealistic, but Mr. Bill is probably going to make a deal, and it’ll affect everyone in some way. The recent news that Judge Richard Posner would mediate the peace talks between the software giant and the government had tech reporters taking bets with one another about how long it might take to hammer out an agreement. My money’s on a slow, arduous process that could stretch into the late months of 2000. Maybe longer.

What it means for travelers: Depends what gets settled. If Microsoft maintains control of the dominant Windows operating system, my contention is that travelers will benefit in the short term, with the continued imposition of OS standards. But the long-term impact would be less positive. True, we’d be able to use our PCs anywhere – trade data and software from portable to workstation – but the Redmond, Wash., company’s monopoly would stifle competition down the road that’s ahead. I think that a lot of levelheaded technology users support a settlement that would encourage innovation, not squelch it.

2. Year of the Palm? Could be. As I write this, the 3Com is spinning off its Palm division into a separate, publicly traded company. The analysts peg its market share for Personal Digital Assistant operating systems at well over 50 percent. Add to that some well-publicized defections of hardware manufacturers to the Palm OS from Microsoft’s Windows CE, and rumors of a hot follow-up to the Palm VII, and you’ve got all the makings of success.

What it means for travelers: Careful which handheld you buy – you might end up with the PDA equivalent of a Mac, should you make the wrong choice. You know, something that looks good but can’t seem to play nice with any of your other gadgets. (Go ahead, Mac disciples, flame me. I dare you.) I’ve evaluated products from both sides of the aisle and found that the Palm OS is as simple and elegant as CE is unseemly and bloated, but that’s just one columnist’s opinion.

3. The Plug! The Plug! I’m pleased to report that the airlines are stepping up efforts to offer improved in-flight entertainment systems, including adding those all-important power outlets for travelers. No fewer than a dozen announcements of that nature have crossed my desk since I wrote the last end-of-year column. That’s the good news. The bad news is: Not everyone is getting plugged in. Talk to the aerospace engineers and interior design experts, and they’ll tell you why. It isn’t always safe or expedient to wire the whole plane, so only the good seats are getting the power outlets.

What it means for travelers: So I’m a skeptic, but I think we’ll see the day when every seat will come with a system featuring interactive games, on-demand video, audio and Internet, before we all get the power outlets. Blame the class system or blame the airlines for being cheap, but it could very well turn out that way. In 2000, you might be able to play Pac Man but you won’t be able to plug your portable in.

4. My way-out-there prediction: the cell phone wins. This is my way-out-there prediction because unlike the other forecasts, there’s absolutely no data to back this one up. But here it goes anyway. I think that in the convergence war, the cell phone will emerge as the victor this year – because of us. Let me explain. At the moment, there’s a battle going on over which device becomes the dominant do-all gadget. PCs are going wireless. Wireless devices are assuming PC-like functions. Phones are surfing the Web. And so forth. Pundits like to call this “digital convergence” but most of us just call it progress. Anyway, my prognosis is that the cell phone will establish itself as the dominant convergence device within the next 12 to 18 months, give or take a few. I don’t say this because the new cell phones are cooler than anything else out there or can do more (although that could certainly be argued) but because people are just so darned attached to them.

What it means for travelers: We already know. We’re making this whole thing happen. Our refusal to let go of our portable phones, even on a plane with the risk that it might endanger the lives of everyone else, suggests that we might also consider going without food, water or shelter before we gave up the gadget. Now that’s customer loyalty. I’m putting my stock in cell phones.

What are your predictions for 2000? Send them to our technology columnist and he’ll publish them in a future column.

Christopher Elliott is the author of Scammed: How to Save Your Money and Find Better Service in a World of Schemes, Swindles, and Shady Deals. Critics have called it “eye-opening” and “inspiring” — it’ll “grab your attention and won’t let go.” Order your copy now on Amazon, Barnes & Noble or iTunes.

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