Don’t leave home without your cell phone?

I’m beginning to think my ‘way-out-there’ prediction for 2000 isn’t that way out there after all.

A few columns ago I suggested that cellular phones would become the dominant travel tool of the next decade. I based my forecast on interviews with end-users and manufacturers, plus my own insights into the world of technology.

I’m not surprised to find out I was right, but I am astonished that the evidence I needed materialized so suddenly. Only days after filing the column, two studies were released that all but confirmed my suspicions. In one poll, corporate travelers said they prefer to travel with a mobile phone instead of a portable computer. The survey, published in the December issue of Frequent Flyer magazine, noted that seven out of ten respondents continue to bring a laptop on trips, but suggested that the numbers were diminishing as cell phones assert their primacy.

The second study, released by Forrester Research a few days later, said Europe was standing on “the brink of a revolution in Internet access.” By 2004, it predicted, one-third of all Europeans – more than 219 million consumers – will regularly use their mobile phones to access Internet services. Europe currently leads the world in mobile phone use, but the United States isn’t far behind. It’s not difficult to imagine a similar trend unfolding here as well.

All of this wouldn’t have struck me as being such a big deal until I heard that none other than Bill Gates would attend his first cellular convention – Wireless 2000 – this February in New Orleans. As a keynote speaker, no less. If the Microsoft mogul is paying this kind of attention to the wireless world, well then there must be something to it.

So the phone rules – or will rule. What does that mean? Are we going to be typing our presentations on our portables in a few years? Watching movies on our phones? Doing spreadsheets, designing Web pages, coding software? As far-fetched as it may sound, the answer is: maybe. Probably, even.

We can already book travel, surf the Web, check e-mail and store data on our phones. In a sense, these little handheld devices have already incorporated all the functionality of the best personal digital assistants and PCs. How hard can it be to make this mutt do a few more tricks? There’s a catch, though. This dog bites. Australian scientists report that they can’t rule out a connection between mobile phone use and cancer, after recently delivering the first findings of a $1.4 million national research program. Researchers subjected mice to high doses of electromagnetic radiation over time. Some of the rodents were affected, although the scientists didn’t offer too many details. They only said more studies were needed.

A study in the New England Journal of Medicine, which examined the cellular phone bills of 699 drivers who were involved in auto accidents, suggested that the risk of collision when using a cell phone was four times higher than when the phone wasn’t being used. Of course, it’s kind of ironic that 90 percent of cellular phone users rank safety and security – particularly on the road – as the “best reason” to own the device, according to a poll conducted by the Cellular Telecommunication Industry Association.

But our true addiction to portable phones didn’t become apparent until late last year, when a published report accused airlines of banning cell phones on planes not because of safety, but to boost profits from the use of those expensive on-board phones. Many readers went through the stratosphere when they heard the news, even though the evidence to support that claim was as circumstantial as my own New Year’s prediction.

I’m amazed at how deep our cellular compulsions run. A couple of weeks ago, for example, I was the featured guest on a radio talk show about the dangers of cell phones. For a whole hour, I fielded questions from callers who sparred with me on the issue of whether driving and talking on a portable was OK. I said it wasn’t, citing the New England Journal of Medicine study and my personal experience of being run off the New Jersey Turnpike by a chatty truck driver. The host agreed with me. A few hours later, he called to thank me for being on the show from his cell phone. He was driving. I think now is as good a time as any to address the big questions about cell phones and travel. When should they be used? Under what circumstances shouldn’t they be turned on? Are they safe? How safe do they need to be?

It’s also a great opportunity to take out the proverbial telescope at the long-term future. Will new aircraft cabins come equipped with wireless transponders that enable mile-high access to the ‘Net? Will our cellular cravings eventually render the PC (or at least the laptop) obsolete? If it’s going to happen anywhere, it’ll happen first among travelers, who never seem to miss an opportunity to complain about the weight of the technology they lug around with them.

This is an exciting, if not unsettling, time to be watching technology evolve.

Christopher Elliott is the author of Scammed: How to Save Your Money and Find Better Service in a World of Schemes, Swindles, and Shady Deals. Critics have called it “eye-opening” and “inspiring” — it’ll “grab your attention and won’t let go.” Order your copy now on Amazon, Barnes & Noble or iTunes.

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