3G threatens to unravel your wireless world

Hold on to your cell phones, folks.

That wireless device in your hand is about to be rendered obsolete by technology you never asked for. It’s called 3G – shorthand for third-generation mobile communications technology – and so far it’s a disaster that’s leaving customers reaching for their old analog phones.

If 3G happens like it’s supposed to, then it will almost certainly join a list of other so-called innovations that frequent travelers love to hate, such as sub-notebooks, high-speed Internet connections at hotels and lithium-ion batteries.

Don’t get me wrong – like the just-mentioned technology, the idea behind 3G is as futuristic as it is fascinating. It promises connection speeds of up to 384 Kbps when a device is stationery or moving at pedestrian speed, 128 Kbps in a car, and 2 Mbps in fixed applications. 3G will also work over wireless air interfaces such as GSM, TDMA, and CDMA – in other words, it will be compatible with most cellular networks.

Let me put that into practical terms. Your new 3G cell phone will be able to receive and send full-motion video, conduct sophisticated electronic commerce transactions, browse the Web in color and play high-end, multiplayer games. Your Internet connection will be a minimum of six times faster than the quickest dial-up speed on a conventional phone. It will also walk your dog, take out the garbage and baby-sit the kids, if you believe the industry literature on 3G.

Just two problems. First, I don’t know of a single user who ever demanded one of the features the new 3G phones will offer. Since I made a similar observation in a recent column about what business travelers want, I won’t belabor my point. In 1999, in a moment of unusual candor for an industry analyst, Forrester Research wireless expert Mark Zohar declared, “Carriers have it all wrong. They are readying to make significant investments in 3G infrastructure before they figure out the applications and business models that will drive future growth and profitability.” Translation: it’s technology for technology’s sake. Not much seems to have changed in the last three years.

Problem two: 3G doesn’t work. Isn’t even close to working.

Consider the tests in progress at Japanese mobile phone giant NTT DoCoMo. It ‘s already postponed its 3G launch to Oct. 1 because of technological glitches that include data transmission problems, especially of video images, between base stations when a caller is on the move or when a call is placed from one coverage area to another. Connections are lost frequently and the display freezes at times, according to one report. “People are pushing good technology too hard for bad reasons,” one analyst said after the failed tests.

In Britain, things aren’t much better for 3G. British Telecommunications was forced to delay its 3G introduction until September because the phones being tested reportedly disconnect calls when users are moving. BT Wireless blames the snafu on NEC Corp.’s software that transfers connections between towers. Interestingly, the wireless providers in the U.K. are having second thoughts about this whole 3G thing and want a refund from the government for spectrum licenses. No way, said Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown, insisting that Britain had been fair in its auction of third-generation mobile licenses.

You’re probably wondering what this means to you. Well, as I said at the beginning, hold on to your cell phone.

3G is coming, whether we like it or not. Whether it works or not.

Will your wireless company confiscate your current cell phone and replace it with one of the new ones? Hardly. More likely, it will try to entice you, cajole you, and perhaps even strong-arm you into making the switch. It will do so not because there’s anything in 3G that will help you get business done any better, but because 3G makes business sense for your cellular provider.

Verizon Wireless, one of the companies contemplating a 3G switch, is watching the tests I just mentioned closely. John Johnson, a company spokesman, says it is mindful of the disruptions that might be caused by upgrades in their technology. “We wouldn’t just arbitrarily make a switch,” he told me.

I hope the other wireless carriers follow Verizon’s lead, but as both an observer of this industry and a committed skeptic, I think 3G has the potential to unravel our wireless world, such as it is. I’m not opposed to new technology, but I’m against technology for technology’s sake. If not carefully deployed, 3G would be more than disruptive – it would be destructive. There’s no telling how old phones would interact with new transmitters, new phones with old transmitters. Frequent travelers already have enough to worry about when they pick up a wireless device. Why add one more thing to it?

Blame the analysts. A recent Yankee Group survey estimated that penetration rates for wireless telephony have surpassed 20 percent in most developed nations, with some countries experiencing wireless penetration of more than 70 percent after little more than a decade of service availability. The survey also called 3G technology “promising.” With reports like these being issued by the so-called industry “experts” – never mind whether they’re true or not – who can blame wireless providers for jumping on the 3G bandwagon?

It’s up to us, the end-users of the world, to exercise caution when 3G arrives, as it most likely will at the beginning of next year. We must be wary of promises made by wireless companies eager to upgrade us to newer, more expensive phones. We must not plunk down our hard-earned cash for new technology without any good reason.

Doing so may prevent a 3G catastrophe.

Christopher Elliott is the author of Scammed: How to Save Your Money and Find Better Service in a World of Schemes, Swindles, and Shady Deals. Critics have called it “eye-opening” and “inspiring” — it’ll “grab your attention and won’t let go.” Order your copy now on Amazon, Barnes & Noble or iTunes.

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