5 things airlines won’t tell you about weather delays
Is your airline telling the truth about the weather?
If you were a passenger on one of the more than 1,200 United Airlines recently canceled, you might have wondered — particularly after its pilots claimed the carrier was understaffed during the peak travel period, contradicting the airline’s explanation that winter storms were to blame for its actions.
And if you had a ticket on Northwest Airlines last summer, and one of your flights was called off because of what the airline said were thunderstorms, but everyone else said was a pilot shortage, you might also have your doubts.
Heck, you don’t even have to fly to distrust an airline. Have you seen the commercial with the pilot and the iPhone yet? The air traffic control says there’s a weather delay. Pilot pulls up the weather report on his phone and finds there’s no weather problem. Tower clears the flight. “Everybody was happy, and life was good,” he says.
If you’re not asking about weather delays yet, you probably will be. The next few months traditionally bring blizzards, ice storms and cold winter rains with them, offering more opportunities for airlines to play the weather card.
And they almost certainly will, say analysts. That’s because of a quirk in the way weather delays and cancellations are reported, an unusually generous definition of weather adopted by airlines, and passenger contracts that are written in a way that gives airlines every incentive to blame Mother Nature.
For the record, the airlines insist they’re telling the whole truth, and nothing but the truth, when it comes to climate-caused cancellations. Asked about its Christmastime meltdown, United Airlines e-mailed me a letter sent to employees by Pete McDonald, its chief operating officer, which explained the situation. “Through the month of December, we were affected by significant irregular operations, particularly at O’Hare, as a result of repeated weather events, including ice, fog, wind and snow,” he wrote. “We also struggled through snowstorms in Denver. In fact, weather and air traffic control delays affected United twice as much as the rest of the industry.”
That may be true, but there’s likely more to it than that, say observers. Here are five things your airline probably won’t tell you about weather delays:
‘Weather is only half of the story — and it’s not the interesting half.’
“If there is a hint of bad weather anywhere, that will be used as the excuse,” says Holly Hegeman, an airline industry analyst with PlaneBusiness.com. But there’s often more at work. In United’s case, a pilot shortage exacerbated by a frayed relationship between pilots and management was probably the primary cause. “I think United looked pretty guilty the last two weeks, as American did not post similar cancellation numbers, nor did Southwest, out of O’Hare or Midway, for the same time periods,” she says.
‘When we call it a weather delay, we’re off the hook.’
“It’s very convenient to put weather over any other shortcomings,” says Henry Harteveldt, an airline analyst with Forrester Research. Why? Because under most airline contracts of carriages — the legal agreements between you and the airlines — weather is considered an “Act of God” and it basically means the carrier owes passengers nothing. “They don’t have to offer you accommodations, meals or hotel vouchers,” he says. “It’s a giant loophole that the airline likes to fly through.”
‘We’re on the honor system when we report a weather delay.’
When an airline says a flight is affected by weather we have to take it at its word. The data is reported to the government but not subjected to any kind of formal audit. Since it first required airlines to report the causes of delays five years ago, the government has red-flagged weather delay numbers only twice. In 2005, SkyWest Airlines was fined $25,000 for “inappropriately attributing flight delays to the National Aviation System,” according to a consent order. And last year, JetBlue Airways was told it had incorrectly tagged some of its winter cancellations as “air carrier” delays, when, in fact, weather should have been cited. It was not fined.
‘Our definition of a weather delay is absurdly loose.’
“Squishy,” is how Meara McLaughlin, vice president of business development for flight data site FlightStats.com, describes the new airline definition of weather. “The definition of weather has expanded a bit,” she says. It isn’t just the conditions at your airport, along the way, or at your destination that count, but weather anywhere in the system that can be invoked. That’s because the airlines’ so-called “hub and spoke” system relies on aircraft coming from other cities, which could be affected by weather. “To my way of thinking, you have to call that something other than weather,” she says. As someone who processes a lot of aviation data, McLaughlin believes airlines are applying this looser definition of weather with greater frequency.
‘We’re even confused by the way we report weather delays.’
Robert Mann, an airline analyst who has investigated how airlines report delays on behalf of the Transportation Department, says the process can even be confusing to someone inside an airline. Each carrier has what he calls “inherent biases” to the way it classifies a delay. It all comes down to who gets to report the delay internally. “If the gate agent has the opportunity to code the delay, they won’t code it as [being their fault] because they could lose bonuses or get a bad review,” he says. “But if you give the reporting capability to someone else, they’ll code it a different way.” More often than not, it’s the bottom line that holds the most sway over how a delay is reported — what kind of delay will cost an airline the least, in terms of compensation paid to passengers or on-time rankings.
So what’s a passenger to do when a flight is delayed or canceled because of a storm? Arguing with a ticket agent is pointless, because the agent isn’t making the call — it’s someone down the line, safe out of your reach.
Your most effective weapon is not information, but politeness. It could get you a hotel room or a meal voucher even when you aren’t entitled to one, and it could put you on the next available flight to your destination.
And next time an airline says your flight is canceled because of the weather, don’t bother looking out your window.
Because what you see doesn’t really matter.
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10 Responses to “5 things airlines won’t tell you about weather delays”
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I am a pilot for a major airline. Weather delays should be taken seriously. Having self proclaimed weather experts hounding pilots over “my daughter is in DFW and says its beautiful outside” is going to get someone killed. Yeah your daughter is outside NOW not in three hours when we are due to arrive and there are thunderstorms with quarter inch hail. If weak minded pilots are pressured into flying through weather in which they have been trained not to, know is dangerous, but the passengers through mutiny forced them to go could be dangerous and cause regulators to impose stiffer weather criteria for IFR (instrument flight rules) flight. If regulators did that then the passengers would be the real losers.
If you see a pilot and he says he doesnt like the weather and wants to wait it out then you can almost guarantee that you do not want to be flying in that weather. We dont like delays either. The iphone commercial although it proves a point and has a good message it is very misleading. As a pilot flying under 121 Regulations you are not going to just get released because you saw one forecast that was favorable. There is a very real reason for weather delays and it is to keep people safe. We try everything in our power to get that flight out on time. ALtough your article is interesting it is misleading and should be corrected to say that people should trust airline crews with their decision. People are required to listen to us once they are on our airplane. If you want to regulate how airlines label delays fine but dont lead people to believe they can force a crew to takeoff when the weather is marginal at best. Professional crews would laugh then throw the objecting passengers off the aircraft but i am worried for the inexperienced, lower timed pilots flying regional aircraft into smaller airports that often times dont have the more expensive but more sophisticated approaches. Maybe you should do a story on pilots flying a 50 passenger jet with as little as 3 months experience flying airplanes (from first flight to flying a commercial jet).
I was on a flight from Long Beach to Phoenix one evening. That’s a one hour flight. We were diverted to Yuma for fuel when it was determined we could not land immediately in high winds. 30 minutes later the pilots told us they were 5 minutes over their flight time with passengers and we had to deplane but another plan was on its way to pick us up. We waited 3 hours at the airport to learn the next flight was at 6 am the next morning.
Because this was a ‘weather’ delay (not having enough fuel to circle the airport for 10 minutes), we were on our own for rooms and meals.
Yuma had closed up for the night, no cars to rent, nothing. I was lucky and paid for a hotel room but others slept at the airport on the floor.
Here’s the kicker. I ended up renting a car the next day because they were not going to fly us out until 3 that afternoon. When I tried to fly back from Phoenix to Long Beach I was told my flight had been canceled because I was never on the original flight.
Oh, and I complained in writing, with absolutely no response.
I fly over 100,000 mile a year and do all I can to avoid America West/US Air now
By far the most important part about all that is the “politeness not information” deal. Since pretty much every time I fly something (usually suspiciously “weather-related”) goes wrong, I’ve learned that at least acting understanding gets stuff taken care of better than cussing out the airline workers.
As with Mr. Egan, I am also an employee of a major airline. I do not fly the aircraft, but do work in the day to day operations on the ground. What I like about your website and your comments is that you provide some good information. What I don’t like is you tend to insinuate that all airlines and their employees are liars and work with the objective of making the traveling public miserable. Let me assure you that we hate delays, such as the weather phenomena you mention, more than even the passengers do.
The cost of running our business does not allow for unlimited resources, and that at times is very challenging for us. Some of those costs are within our control (labor), some not (fuel). As for the controllable costs such as labor, I don’t think anyone would consider employees of the airline business overpaid, and you would be hard pressed to find anyone who has not sacrificed to keep their job. When a flight cancels or delays, my employees do the best they can to take care of the customer within the guidelines. We are running a business just like any other, and I am amused how many people think we should not be allowed to turn a profit. Just yesterday during the flight I was on, the lady next to me was complaining how all the flights are full these days and how that is annoying to her - let me tell you - that’s the point!
As for the weather delays, the complex nature of our industry is not understood by the average passenger, and sometimes putting it into lay terms makes it easier to understand. For example, if a weather event is forecasted 2-3 hours in advance and that given airport is scheduled to have say 200 arrivals within that 2-3 hour period, something has to give. On a highway, if an accident occurs and blocks one of three lanes, not as many cars can pass and the flow is decreased for safety, thus creating a traffic jam. The same applies to our airspace system, if an arrival flow has to be decreased due to a storm approaching (accident on the highway) then the flow is decreased for safety - even if the weather at that very moment appears clear and beautiful at both the departure and arrival aiport. Thus the weather delay or even cancellations that can appear to be suspicious. This of course is only one scenario, there are many, many more.
The main point I am trying to convey is the airlines are not out to rip you off, and at times decisions must be made that are difficult for the customer, but are in the interest of safety. Just as with any other employer of a large work force, there are employees who do not give the service that is deserved, those people, are dealt with accordingly. It may be hard to believe, but our main objective is to get you there safe, ontime and satisfied. Our planes are full and the legroom is not that great, but that is why fares for the most part are cheap and affordable for almost everyone.
Continental Airlines delayed me for 2 days!
Delay part about 2/3 down the page.
http://www.fatkittystudios.com/photo_blog/photoblog_12_26_07.htm
I am a regional airline pilot who has over 11,000 accident-free flying hours over 25 years of flying. I am bound by the OFFICIAL weather and forecasts in making my decisions. This is generally spelled out for us by the regulations (as are maximum duty and flight-time limits). It’s not up for discussion with anyone except the crew and the dispatcher - who is jointly responsible for releasing the flight. I will gladly explain the circumstances (politeness helps here too) but, by law, I am the final authority as to whether the airplane moves and where it ends up. I take that responsibility seriously.
In airline flying, there is no legal allowance for a passenger stating, “My cousin says it’s nice at his house in Green Bay”, “My iPhone says the weather is good there are no delays in Chicago.” I just want to ask that person if he/she has spoken to our dispatcher to get the official weather for the destinationa and alternate airport(s). “Do you curry favor with the fueler and have you suggested he skip the other ten airplanes also waiting for gas?” “Have you contacted the Air Traffic Management Unit to get our flight released ahead of the other 75 delayed flights whos’ passengers also have iPhones?” But, I digress.
Usually, I have no personal interest in getting to a particular destination, other than strong desire to get people where they paid to go. This is as it should be - a disinterested person making an objective decision. Occasionally, I must call on experience and judgement to make a decision more conservative than the rules allow. Fortunately, I work for an airline that values my opinion. I can only hope the passengers will too. And, my primary motivation is that I want to grow old someday and I expect those sitting behind me feel the same way.
I suspect this is such a heated issue because, nowadays, the stakes are so high. Weather, traffic, mechanical and other delays and cancellations are inevitible. But the havoc caused by these events is insane - and is largely preventable!!! Flights are packed full - which is uncomfortable enough. But, because there is no excess capacity, one delayed or cancelled flight might mean passengers might wait a several days before getting to their destination. This is outrageous!!!
Not only is there no excess capacity to account for these foreseeable circumstances, airlines are allowed to sell more tickets than they have seats. They gamble on the fact that a certain number of people will “no-show”. They have this down to a science and Involuntary Denied Boardings are scarce. But, this is no consolation to the person that will not make it to their mother’s death-bed in time to say goodbye, or to the Boston family sitting in Houston for a week, missing their entire Hawaiian vacation beacause all the flights are oversold. And, because one flight was delayed due to weather, there is no help or compensation forthcoming.
Airlines need to remain profitable or they don’t stay in business. But, when planes are packed and profits are still marginal, this is a problem. Are passengers willing to pay for excess capacity, leg-room, meals, snacks, etc.? History says, “no.”
I take exception to Mr. (Captain?) Egan’s tone on regional airlines but, he brings up an excellent point. How would you feel if your doctor went to an accelerated 1-year medical school and had a 3-month internship? Would you look for another doctor? I would. What if it cost more? What if the majority of people chose not to pay more? What if doctors’ salaries dipped to where it was no longer worth going through the long, expensive process to become one. Certainly, we would have a few dedicated individuals that would do it for the love of humanity. But, we would face a critical shortage of doctors and would have no choice but to accept those with less education and experience.
Likewise, not all that long ago, the airlines were very a lucrative career for a pilot - the pinnacle of years of education, training, likely military service and paying one’s dues. With drastic concessions throughout the industry (while corporate officers and managers deal themselves huge bonuses for “saving” their companies), fewer and fewer qualified people are choosing aviation as a career. Most airline pilots have a college degree and more than a few have Master’s and even Doctorate level educations, as well as other proffesional training. And many of these pilots, including those at “major” airlines have chosen to leave the industry. Why be away from home and family more than half of each month when one could make as much or more as a CPA, lawyer, businessman, etc?
Don’t get me wrong. It is my decision to stay where I am. I enjoy what I do and work for a great company. After 14 years I do OK. Regional pilots have faired relatively better than our “major” counterparts. We have not taken the huge concessions they have but, we haven’t kept up with inflation either. As a whole, pilots are working much harder now for less than they were ten years ago. Blame the economy, 9/11, oil prices, etc., the net effect has left the entire industry with very slim pickings.
Again, you get what you pay for.
[...] Elliott’s blog sheds some light on dubious “weather delays” sometimes used by airlines to justify canceled and delayed flights that are in reality due to understaffing and pilot shortage issues. [...]
Well, I just got my flight cancelled in PA. 6 AM flight tomorrow is overbooked, so Ill be arriving home more than 30 hours late. I have spent enough time in the air this year to be a certified pilot if I were actually flying, and have dealt with some ridiculous delays and horrible professionalism.
In all of the delays, I have never ever once been compensated, or received an honest apology even when it cost me money. To the airline pilots responding, I think its cool that you take the time to explain yoru side of it, but I don’t think the delays are the real complaint.
I was flying out of KC earlier this year, flight was delayed for 8 hours, everything was closed in the airport at 7, etc. The reason for the delay? A weather delay in Denver was preventing our flight attendant from getting to KC to board the plane that was already at the gate and ready to go at its normal time.
Since that was a “weather” delay? We were entitled to no compensation, despite the fact that I didn’t get home until the next morning at 6 AM.
I think the problem is that, airlines aren’t taking responsibility for passenger inconvenience.
For example, earlier this month I was on a morning flight that was overbooked, and they asked for volunteers to give up their seat for a seat on a later flight, plus a free round trip ticket.
I volunteered, but before the she printed my boarding passes she told me that I would not be eligible for the free flight unless my next flight was more than 12 hours.
They had a flight 6 hours later, and then another the next morning.
I said “f*ck that*… and took my boarding pass back.
What a bunch of jerks! I was trying to help out!
Anyways, once this was revealed, no one volunteered, so they had to boot people. That lady was within about an inch of getting beat down by this couple from NY.
That is the problem.
The accusations from both sides of this issue will continue for years to come but the bottom line is - As Airline travel becomes more expensive and an increasingly unreliable method of getting from point A to B prospective customers are going to think twice before buying that ticket. Despite gas price increases customers will at least give serious consideration to a method of travel where they have more control of their fate. This will of course exacerbate airlines money problems and the vicious cycle will continue until airlines figure out a way do a better job of meeting their commitments to passengers without hiding behind the weather. Certainly weather creates havoc for airlines but it is made worse by airlines paper-thin coverage of equipment needs (aircraft mostly). IF bad weather in one part of the country does in fact shred their flight schedules across the country then the industry needs to rethink their domino structure of flights.
[...] have eased their booking rules on flights directly affected by the storm, they may yet invoke the weather excuse for flights using Dallas and Houston as a [...]