The truth about the worst summer for air travel ever

The latest government airline numbers are out this morning, and they’re bound to cause yet another round of hyperventilating. They show an overall on-time arrival rate of 77.9 percent in May, down from 78.3 percent in May 2006. Can I hear another “this-is-going-to-be-the-worst-summer-for-air-travel-ever”?

First of all, friends, we’re only a few days into summer. So let’s not jump to any conclusions yet. It doesn’t look good, that’s true, but we don’t know if it’s going to be that bad, either.

Second, why don’t we pull up a few numbers and see what’s really going on? God bless the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, but it sure does take its time with the numbers. I mean, it’s already July. Why are we still talking about May?

I asked my friends over at FlightStats to run some numbers from Jan. 1 to June 15. The result? The “summer” — even if you count Memorial Day as the unofficial start of summer, as some of my travel writing peers do — is not dramatically worse than this spring, in terms of airline delays and cancellations.

For example:

» The average delay for the first half of June was an unacceptable 61 minutes. Every bit as unacceptable as a year ago, when it was 54 minutes. “Early June consistently suffers a higher average delay than the preceding five months,” FlightStats’ Meara McLaughlin told me.

» Flight cancellations are up 191 percent for the first half of last month. Oy vey! But look … in March it was up 168 percent, and it April it was up 147 percent. Where are the “worst-spring-for-air-travel” proclamations? Anyone?

» The number of excessive delays for the first two weeks of June look pretty damning, too. They’re up a whopping 161 percent from the same period last year. But breathe deeply, friends. It wasn’t as bad as February, when excessive delays were an eye-popping 184 percent higher than they were in February of 2006. And March, April and May were pretty dreadful too — up 108 percent, 117 percent and 111 percent, respectively.

It’s worth emphasizing that the last two weeks of June will reflect the Northwest cancellations, so June will still be remarkably bad, any way you look at it. But July and August? We’ll just have to wait and see.

Bottom line: for now, at least, it would be more accurate to say we’re having a bad year for air travel, not just a bad summer.

Christopher Elliott is the author of Scammed: How to Save Your Money and Find Better Service in a World of Schemes, Swindles, and Shady Deals. Critics have called it “eye-opening” and “inspiring” — it’ll “grab your attention and won’t let go.” Order your copy now on Amazon, Barnes & Noble or iTunes.

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