The future of air travel?

As we wait in long lines at the airport this week, many of us will probably wonder if we are looking at the future of air travel: long lines, overcrowded flights, cranky crewmembers.

At least that’s something my editors have been pondering (look for my story on the NPR Web site and my guest appearance on this morning’s On Point to discuss the topic).

The short answer — at least according to the people I talk to — is: yes. Here’s why:

Air travel continues to grow unchecked. Last year, for the first time ever, the world’s airlines transported more than two billion passengers, according to the International Civil Aviation Organization — yes, that’s billion with a “b.” A Boeing study projects an average 4.9 percent grown in passenger traffic through 2022. Other projections are more optimistic. In other words, more people than ever will fly.

Airports aren’t keeping up. Between 1995 and 2001, only eight new runways opened at the top 100 airports, and we’ve averaged one new passenger airport a decade in the United States, according the Air Transport Association. By 2012, the federal government projects U.S. airlines will top one billion passengers (this year, it will carry about 600 million, according to the feds).

Domestic airlines are struggling — and consolidating. Between 2001 and 2004, the U.S. airline industry lost $32.3 billion, according to the Air Transport Association. That has set off a wave of bankruptcies (Delta Airlines and Northwest) and consolidations, the most recent of which is US Airways’ proposed takeover of Delta Air Lines. Airline profit margins have always been relatively narrow — between 1991 and 2000, they fluctuated between just 3 percent and 8 percent. And those were the good years.

Service levels are falling. According to the American Customer Satisfaction Index, a gauge of customer satisfaction researched by the University of Michigan, customers give airlines a failing grade when it comes to service. The airline industry scored a collective 65 out of 100 on the latest study, down 10 percent from the first year of the survey back in 1994. You don’t have to look far for a reason. With fewer airlines struggling to make a profit, everything from employee salaries to in-flight amenities are being cut. When’s the last time you were served a real meal on a plane?

It’s back to the future. Only this time, it’s worse. Remember 1998? It was a year of record profits for the airline industry — and record complaints by passengers. At least back then, airlines were making money. At least then, the system wasn’t strained by record numbers of air travelers — or an intrusive Transportation Security Administration that now often adds to the delays and confusion. As passengers look ahead, they can see their future in the past: the watershed years of 1998 and 1999, when they thought things couldn’t get any worse. Well, they were probably wrong about that.

So as we spend another Thanksgiving standing in line at the airport (a record 4.8 million passengers will fly, says AAA) here’s a thought: Get used to it.

By 2020, we might be looking back at 2006 and reminiscing about the good ‘ol days of air travel.

Christopher Elliott is the author of Scammed: How to Save Your Money and Find Better Service in a World of Schemes, Swindles, and Shady Deals. Critics have called it “eye-opening” and “inspiring” — it’ll “grab your attention and won’t let go.” Order your copy now on Amazon, Barnes & Noble or iTunes.

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