There are Web sites that predict air fares, like Farecast, and sites that offer a weather prognosis, like Weather.com. But how about air traffic delays? Well, now there’s a new site, Delaycast, that answers the question: “Will my flight be delayed?”
Delaycast uses a mathematical model to predict delays and cancellations, according to one of its founders, Rob Stevens. “In turns out that there are very clear, regular delay patterns that are somewhat predictable at every airport for every airline,” he told me. “And this is independent of weather or other traditional causes of delays – the system is simply overloaded.”
I checked my flight to Albuquerque tomorrow and found that there was a 57 percent chance of a departing on time, with the probability of a 9 minute delay and a 2 percent chance of a cancellation.
Delaycast is not meant to be used as a day-of-travel notification system, according to Stevens. “It is better used for advanced planning of a trip, and supports questions like, ‘Will I make that meeting on time?’” or, ‘Will I make my connection?’”
Instead of relying on 30-day trailing averages for a specific flight, as do some air fare prediction sites, Delaycast leans on an algorithm developed by Stevens and his team. That formula, he says, “is often more accurate for specific airport, airline, date and time selections.”
I think Delaycast is needed in today’s world of ever-present (and rising) airline delays. It would be great to see this application incorporated on one of the major online travel agency sites, to help customers make a more informed purchase.
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{ 3 comments… read them below or add one }
What if….
Delaycast partnered with the airport retailers and food stops…for example… You see that your flight might be delayed…you print out a coupon of sorts that’s good for a discount or a free-bee …. As a matter of fact..the airlines should do this… So that passengers aren’t so fed up with delay after delay… At least the airline is then giving some sort of consolation prize for being stuck…
Wishful thinking?
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Jason Scott Coletta
Senior Account Executive
Laura Davidson Public Relations
jason@ldpr.com
I have to admit–it’s a fun Website, and I’d say, a useful one. Even if the help is sort of in a general way, it’s better than no help at all! Good job and kudos to the math geeks who set up the algorithms!
A delay tomorrow would be weather related as it is cold and threatening to snow in ABQ.