There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Maybe Mark Twain, or Benjamin Disraeli, or whoever first said that, worked in the travel industry. Because this week, as we look ahead to the busy holiday season, we are presented with two conflicting views of the future. One of them is probably wrong.
(And don’t even get me started on yesterday’s AAA Thanksgiving forecast, which basically said nothing was going to happen.)
Maritz Travel says the travel industry stands to lose $4.05 billion as holiday travel is projected to be down for the first year in a decade. Only 23 percent of Americans plan to travel during the holidays, a three percent drop from the average over the past seven years. That amounts to 1,599,328 fewer people traveling according to the poll.
Not only are people traveling less, but their travel budget is down 14 percent. Consumers’ estimated spend this year is $853.96, a significant drop from previous years.
A survey of 2,000 consumers in the United States by Deloitte, however, found reason for “cautious optimism” when it comes to the holiday and winter travel season.
Almost half will take a vacation or leisure trip that involves staying overnight in a lodging facility, such as a hotel, motel or a timeshare, from the beginning of Thanksgiving week through March of next year. Anywhere from a quarter to a third of travelers will travel overnight and stay at a lodging facility between Thanksgiving and New Year’s Day, it predicted.
Deloitte analyst Adam Weissenberg sums up the findings:
This season, spending likely won’t return to levels that the industry enjoyed prior to the recession, but some segments of the population are showing more confidence in the economy. This could lead to some improvement over the near-term for hospitality companies and restaurants and should translate to improved long-term conditions as the economy strengthens further.
Let’s compare that with the conclusions of Maritz’ Rick Garlick:
Consumers are not only traveling less, but their budgets are leaner when they do decide to travel. Historically, holiday travel is one of the most lucrative times of the year for the travel industry, but with a projected $4.05 billion loss, many companies will need to figure out a way to compensate for this lost revenue without further compromising customer satisfaction through the addition of yet more fees.
Oh, did he just say the “F” word?
Who’s right? I don’t know.
What do you think?
(Photo: Ryd4/Flickr Creative Commons)
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{ 8 comments… read them below or add one }
I guess the airline industry is shooting itself in the foot by jacking up airfares like crazy….a ticket from MDW-Vegas which used to go @ 99 during Apr-June now is about 220…a 100% appreciation during holiday season…no wonder everyones making a loss….
Charge too much – people will find alternative ways to travel.
When the airlines charge too much – people do not fly. When hotels charge too much – they stay with relatives over holidays. you have to understand that when I was kid in the 60’s – travel was big deal – and if you went to visit someone for the holidays you stayed with them. This whole hotel thing only really got going in the 80’s – before then you stayed with your relatives when you traveled at the holidays.
And if hotels decide a holiday surcharge, holiday housekeeping fee [I saw that one on a small hotel over Christmas so I canceled the res when I saw the confirmation - they immediately called and offered to pull it] or congestion fee or whatever they want to call it – people will just go back to their old ways. Staying with the relatives may require the consumption of additional adult beverages, but – hey – thats how my family got through the holidays in the 60’s and 70’s!
People can just as well pack up a large family and drive versus go bankrupt. Honestly, I absolutely hate flying and I don’t even have to worry about kids or the like. Between the airport security and the headache involved, I prefer to drive. Then again, like most, who has money to do anything now. This economy is in the toilets. The airline can give tax payers a call back when we get our 700 Billion and 1 Billion Dollar bailouts courtesy of Former President Bush and Current President Obama. I’ll take mine in the form of gold bullion. Otherwise, like most Americans right now, travel is the ABSOLUTE last thing on our minds. Something called a place to live and food on the table takes precedence. I am not sure who these guys “surveyed”, but I got a good feeling it wasn’t your average earner or those who are sitting outside the payrolls right now. I can tell you most people I know don’t have disposable income to waste.
Justin
Paging Ms. Sylvia Browne…
@Aravind – The reason airlines are having issues is that $99 round trip fares MDW-LAS are not sustainable. It costs more to fly one passenger from Chicago to Las Vegas & back!
The airlines continue to screw us, with holiday surcharges, baggage fees & so on, then they wonder why travel is down? I wish I had an MBA, then maybe I could understand their approach.
PS: Fly Southwest – no outrageous fees!
@Chris…It was $99 one-way from MDW-LAS….which wrt the gas prices during Apr-June was a good deal….yh I do agree that a $99 round trip is defntly unsustainable…
@Justin “The airline can give tax payers a call back when we get our 700 Billion and 1 Billion Dollar bailouts courtesy of Former President Bush and Current President Obama”
Don’t leave out the real perpetrators of the giveaways – the democrat controlled congress.
Spending your money like it was theirs since 2006!