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Bumping Fools
Ask Chris · June 8, 2000

Q: I love being bumped from oversold flights. The rewards are just too great to pass up. I recently was offered a $1,000 travel voucher for being bumped from a Los Angeles to Washington flight and to wait 12 hours.

I was wondering if there was a way to predict or know which flights are often oversold to maximize my chances of getting a voucher? Thanks for your advice and help.

-- Mike Rowley

A: Have you lost your mind? You're exactly the kind of passenger that the airlines want - the kind that will let them off easy for negligently overbooking flights.

Let's examine the "deal" you got for taking the voucher. A coupon like that often comes with all kinds of strings attached. It may be geographically restricted (for instance, "anywhere in the lower 48 states") or there could be inventory restrictions on it ("subject to availability in your class of service"). You could also get hit with additional "ticketing" fees when you try to redeem the freebie. Plus, the voucher might expire.

Look at it from another perspective: is $1,000 worth a 12-hour layover? That's $83 and hour - not a shabby sum - but what about having to put up with the airport hotel (no fun) or the delay in your vacation (even less fun) or the additional meal expenses (ditto)?

You can predict which flights will be oversold, but use these methods to avoid them rather than booking a seat on them. Accepting these airline bribes is like giving them a license to continue overbooking their flights. You shouldn't encourage it. Here's how:

  • Common sense. The experienced traveler knows that Fridays, Sundays and Mondays tend to be the busiest travel days. Also, holidays are usually prime time for overbooking. Business travelers can't always avoid flying at these times, but leisure travelers can. And they ought to.

  • By the numbers. The United States Department of Transportation collects information about oversales for the 10 largest carriers. However, it is limited to the number of passengers who hold confirmed reservations and are denied boarding from a flight because it is oversold. By reviewing the list, it's not difficult to determine which airline overbooks the most. Last year, Delta Air Lines and America West led the pack in bumping customers, with 1.53 and 1.39 involuntary denied boardings per 10,000 passengers, respectively.

  • Word of mouth. Ask frequent business travelers and they'll tell you which carriers and routes are the worst for overbooked flights. They know because they've been left behind - and that's no fun when you've got a business meeting halfway across the country the next morning. Don't know any road warriors? Then check out WebFlyer's FlyerTalk bulletin board for lively discussions between the savviest travelers.
Trust me, a voucher is a good deal only if you're the airline. It lets a carrier off the hook for rigging its reservations systems to accept more bookings than a plane can handle. Ultimately, it isn't fair to those of us who are involuntarily denied boarding.

Think about that the next time a gate agent tries to entice you with a "free" ticket.

Christopher Elliott is a travel commentator and author of A Bridge to Nowhere: A Year in the Florida Keys. All e-mailed questions may be edited, condensed or republished at the site's discretion. Ask Chris appears weekly on this site.